Interesting Things About the 2012 Election

I find it interesting that in the 2012 election VA leaned more blue than the national vote, and OH leaned red. This is going to cause some trouble going forward for Republicans as the blue leaning states now make a majority of the electoral college. Of the swing states that were actually in play (CO, OH, FL, VA, NV, NC) 5 went to Obama, and three (CO, VA, NV) favored Obama over the national vote.

NV went more blue than even PA!

If the national vote was to shift 3 percentage points (giving Romney a .5% advantage) Obama still would of won without OH, FL, or VA. Assuming state leanings stay the same (or even continue their demographic shifts) this is a large uphill battle for Republicans going forward.

Additionally, the winning candidate lost (in exit polls) on the number one issue of concern to voters (the economy). I think this means that people are under-estimating the importance of social issues, and that multi-issue voters are favoring more social liberalism (and voting against their top priority to keep it).

Lastly, even though many predicted the polls were inaccurate due to the assumption that turnout would match the 2008 election, in reality the turnout was even farther skewed from the norm (with African American voters making up 14% of the OH voters, up from 11%), that skewing won Obama OH (with 200,000 more African Americans voting in 2012).

Unless the Republican party can become less hardline on social issues, things are looking bleak for them.

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